Gorton and Denton goes to the polls today. Labour have held this seat for 90 years. Ninety.

Andrew Gwynne resigned after being sacked as a minister. Now it's a three-way dogfight between Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK.

The Greens are running Hannah Spencer. Reform have Matt Goodwin. Labour are defending what should be the safest of safe seats.

But nothing is safe for Labour right now.

Starmer's approval ratings are in the gutter. The party is split between Blairites and the left. Andy Burnham wanted to run but the NEC blocked him, which tells you everything about the state of internal Labour politics.

The Greens think they can win. They're throwing everything at it, campaigning hard on local issues and housing. Never mind that their national policy includes abolishing faith schools and legalising heroin. In a heavily Muslim constituency, that faith schools policy is electoral poison.

Reform are testing whether their vote translates in northern Labour heartlands. Goodwin is a well-known political commentator who's spent years arguing that the working class has been abandoned by Labour. Now he's asking them to prove it.

If Labour hold on, the margin will tell the story. A narrow win in a 90-year seat is still a disaster.

If they lose? That's an earthquake. And Starmer will have nowhere left to hide.

Results expected overnight.