Rupert Lowe has 80,000 members and counting. Reform UK is watching.

The former Reform MP launched "Restore Britain" with a splash, positioning it as a movement for people who think even Reform doesn't go far enough. It's attracted serious donor interest and, according to Guido Fawkes, has Reform HQ "twitchy."

One Reform insider admitted Lowe is "extremely well connected" and, with serious money behind him, could peel away low single-digit percentages in the polls. For a party that wins seats by thin margins, that's not nothing. That's an existential headache.

Lowe's pitch is familiar to anyone who's followed the right-wing ecosystem. The establishment is broken. The mainstream parties have failed. Even the insurgents have gone soft. Only a genuinely radical movement can save Britain.

It's the same pitch Farage made about UKIP. Then about Brexit Party. Then about Reform. The question is whether there's room for another iteration, or whether the right is about to eat itself the way Labour is.

The parallel with Labour is instructive. Starmer is fighting Burnham. The NEC elections are a proxy war. The left is fracturing while pretending to be united.

Could the right do the same? Lowe pulling 2-3% from Reform in key seats could hand victories to Labour candidates who'd otherwise lose. The nightmare scenario for the populist right isn't losing to the left on ideas. It's losing to the left because the right can't agree on a vehicle.

Reform's advantage has always been unity. One leader. One message. One party. Lowe threatens that.

Competition is healthy. It keeps parties honest. But in a first-past-the-post system, fragmentation is fatal. Lowe needs to decide whether he's building something or burning something down.

80,000 members is impressive. The question is what they're marching towards.