Minus thirty-eight.

That's Starmer's net favourability on the YouGov tracker. Worse than any Labour leader at this point in a parliament. Worse than Corbyn. Let that settle for a moment.

Sixty-two percent of people who actually voted Labour now say the party has failed to deliver on its promises. Not Tory voters. Not Reform voters. His own lot.

The bloke walked into Downing Street with a thumping majority and genuine public goodwill. Britain was tired. Fourteen years of the Tories had ground people down. Starmer just had to be competent. That was the bar. Competent.

Energy prices are still mad. The NHS waiting list hasn't budged. The boats keep coming. Ask anyone on a normal wage what's changed since the election and they'll just stare at you.

Cabinet ministers keep briefing journalists about "the long game" and "structural reforms." Translation: we haven't got a clue either, but we'd like another few years to figure it out.

Reform's on 20% and climbing. Farage is hoovering up Labour seats in the Midlands and the North. The exact places Starmer was supposed to have locked down.

One Labour MP, who wouldn't be named, put it bluntly: "We're sleepwalking. If we don't change course, we're a one-term government."

Nobody at the top seems to be listening.